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Service Description: Depicts the probability of forecast rapid onset flooding over the next 18 hours using a time-lagged ensemble from the short-range configuration of the National Water Model (NWM) over the contiguous U.S. Shown are reaches (stream order 4 and below) that are expected to meet rapid onset flooding criteria (flow increase of 100% or greater within one hour and high water threshold conditions within 6 hours) using the most recent 7 forecasts. Reaches are colored by the probability that they will meet or exceed rapid onset conditions within hours 1-6, 7-12, and 1-12. Probabilities are computed as the % agreement across the 7 ensemble members that a given reach will meet rapid onset criteria at some point during the time period of interest. Hotspots show the average 1-12 hour rapid onset flooding probability, weighted by reach length, for USGS HUC8 basins with greater than 10% of NWM feature length meeting rapid onset criteria in the next 12 hours. High water thresholds (regionally varied) were derived using the 40-year NWM v3.0 reanalysis simulation.
Updated hourly.
Link to graphical web page: https://www.weather.gov/owp/operations
Link to documentation: https://www.weather.gov/media/owp/operations/Public_Handbook_V2.3_%20NWC_Visualization_Services.pdf
For feedback or questions please email nwps.webmaster@noaa.gov
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Description: Depicts the probability of forecast rapid onset flooding over the next 18 hours using a time-lagged ensemble from the short-range configuration of the National Water Model (NWM) over the contiguous U.S. Shown are reaches (stream order 4 and below) that are expected to meet rapid onset flooding criteria (flow increase of 100% or greater within one hour and high water threshold conditions within 6 hours) using the most recent 7 forecasts. Reaches are colored by the probability that they will meet or exceed rapid onset conditions within hours 1-6, 7-12, and 1-12. Probabilities are computed as the % agreement across the 7 ensemble members that a given reach will meet rapid onset criteria at some point during the time period of interest. Hotspots show the average 1-12 hour rapid onset flooding probability, weighted by reach length, for USGS HUC8 basins with greater than 10% of NWM feature length meeting rapid onset criteria in the next 12 hours. High water thresholds (regionally varied) were derived using the 40-year NWM v3.0 reanalysis simulation.
Updated hourly.
Link to graphical web page: https://www.weather.gov/owp/operations
Link to documentation: https://www.weather.gov/media/owp/operations/Public_Handbook_V2.3_%20NWC_Visualization_Services.pdf
For feedback or questions please email nwps.webmaster@noaa.gov
Service Item Id: 60f80bd96f704d5e9d93db4410159d34
Copyright Text: National Water Model, NOAA/NWS National Water Center
Spatial Reference:
102100
(3857)
LatestVCSWkid(0)
Initial Extent:
XMin: -1.996596875505005E7
YMin: 2372656.9652712177
XMax: -9845636.014384568
YMax: 9497817.699967686
Spatial Reference: 102100
(3857)
LatestVCSWkid(0)
Full Extent:
XMin: -1.5224159214216806E7
YMin: 2159597.880736096
XMax: -6228307.888008264
YMax: 7211496.010788572
Spatial Reference: 102100
(3857)
LatestVCSWkid(0)
Units: esriMeters
Document Info:
Title: NWM 12-Hour Rapid Onset Flooding Probability Forecast
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Keywords: short,range,forecast,streamflow,rapid,onset,flood,probability,national,water,model,nwm
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